Dashboard/MRNA/mRNA-1647/event

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mRNA-1647 CMVictory Phase 3 Topline

MRNA·mRNA-1647·Cytomegalovirus Infection·

Phase 3

·NCT05085366

current best date

DEC

2026

MONTH7 months

Takeaway

First Phase 3 efficacy readout for any cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine — no CMV vaccine has ever been approved. Watch: vaccine efficacy against primary CMV infection in seronegative women aged 16–40, primary endpoint pre-specified at p<0.025.

What’s at stake

market · comparables · base rate · prior moves

Market opportunity

—

company filings

Peer comparables

1 readout

ClinicalTrials.gov

Stage base rate

~58%

BIO Industry Analysis 2023 (2011–2020)

Avg prior-readout move

—

historical price reactions

MoApentavalent CMV vaccine

mRNA-1647 is Moderna's investigational cytomegalovirus (CMV) vaccine designed to protect against the most common cause of congenital viral infection in the United States. The vaccine encodes six CMV surface proteins — including the gH/gL pentameric complex — to elicit a broader immune response than prior single-antigen approaches that have failed in clinical trials. CMV infects roughly 1 in 200 infants born each year, causing permanent hearing loss and developmental disability; no CMV vaccine has ever been approved, making this the first Phase 3 efficacy trial for any CMV candidate.

Indication

Vaccines

Cytomegalovirus Infection

MeSH · D003586

No primer in glossary yet.

Trial

active

NCT05085366 ↗

CMVictory: Phase 3 Efficacy Study of mRNA-1647 in Seronegative Adults

Competitive landscape

1 peer in Vaccines · ranked by indication + modality match

Drug	Company	Modality	Mechanism	Phase	Next catalyst
mRNA-1083	MRNA	mRNA	combination flu + COVID-19 mRNA vaccine		—

Prior MRNA reactions to Readout events

1 historical event · base rate, not prediction

Median 1W move

+32.0%

Median 1M move

+43.9%

Positive outcomes

1/ 1

100%

Negative outcomes

0/ 1

Date	Headline	Outcome	1W	1M	6M
Apr 2026	mRNA-1083 P304 Flu+COVID Phase 3 Topline	positive	+32.0%	+43.9%	+28.7%

Historical MRNA stock reaction to past Readout catalysts. Past performance is not a forecast — base rates anchor expectations, not outcomes. Positive rate 100%.

Disclosure trail

1 observation · sorted by confidence

May 8, 2026·-11247m agopinned · highest confidence
HIGH conf10-Q
top claim
DEC2026
MONTH
“For our CMV vaccine candidate mRNA-1647, we anticipate primary efficacy data from the Phase 3 CMVictory trial in December 2026.”
contextMD&A — Recent Developments section, Form 10-Q for Q1 2026.
conf 89%via llm

MethodologyEvery catalyst date is anchored to a primary source. Disclosures with confidence ≥ 0.85 auto-publish; the rest are reviewed by a human within 24 hours. We never interpret data — we organize public information.